20 Years of Arnoldshain Seminar
“20 Years of Challenges for Integration, Globalization, and Development”
September 14 – 18, 2015
Frankfurt and Arnoldshain / Taunus

Diaz Cafferata, Alberto M.    
AbstracttitleIs growth influenced by the terms of trade? Argentina, a case study.
Coco-authored with José Luis Arrufat, Sergio M. Buzzi, María Victoria Catalano
ShortabstractDo Argentina’s high terms of trade (TOT) volatility impair its economic growth? Is there a policy problem? In this paper we test the null that volatility doesn’t matter. We use an annual 1810-2014 sample to examine whether the GDP growth pattern is Granger-caused by (unobserved ex ante) TOT uncertainty, which we proxy by several measures of the ex post peculiar high volatility of its TOT. The null hypothesis of no influence is posed for econometric estimations of causality, with a rolling window SD as our benchmark and other admissible volatility indices generated by detrending, decycling, and correcting for expectations formation. We find weak evidence in subperiods of a negative relationship between TOT volatility and the pattern of GDP growth.
PresenterAlberto M. Diaz Cafferata & María Victoria Catalano